Storms, part 2

A Tornado over a Reservoir

To improve effectiveness of weather warnings, the Weather-Ready National Program was established by the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  In short, they wanted to determine whether all Americans are benefitting from Severe Weather Communication. Their research established three specific things to consider: 1. How well are all members of the public informed of the severe weather threats? 2.  How prepared are they before the event?  3. Did people take appropriate action once an event occurred? 

One of the ongoing considerations for the Weather Service is balancing "False Alarms," particularly relevant for Tornado warnings.  If too many warnings are given, and no actual Tornado threat materializes, people begin to ignore the warnings.  On the other hand, watching too long to determine whether it is an actual threat may be too little time for people in its path to find shelter. 

Hurricanes give more time for warnings, but how many times have we heard people say they have stayed home, ignoring the threat with a sort of bravado, only to require a rescue that jeopardizes those who come to help.  A new problem, at least one I had not considered, was the problem for escaping in electric cars, when the water level rose rapidly.  

 A study by Professor Solomon Hsiangg focused on the impact on those who lived through severe tropical storms, but weeks and years later were found to have had shortened lives.  They compared general life expectancy against those who had gone through a hurricane and found that cyclones led to a 6% bump in mortality.  Cancer patients who lived through Hurricane Katrina in 2005 had lower survival rates even years later, probably because of disruptions in their treatment.  A more recent article suggests subtle, long-term changes causing stress that might also explain the impact on hurricane survivors, such as incurring debt or borrowing from their savings to recover from the hurricane, making their lives more difficult in later years.  I thought of other things, such as stress from losing a business or job, working to repair their own damaged home, which involved stress or injuries, being forced to move, or many other possible examples.  Psychological effects can damage physical health. 

An addendum:  I wrote this blog several months ago, but I find it necessary to add more recent events.  Climate.gov reports 27 individual weather and climate disasters in 2024 involving government assistance:  at least a billion in damages, at least 5 floods; and at least 166 who died in U.S. floods, the majority during driving.

As of January 28, 2025, in California there have been 312 wildfires, 365 structure fires, 5119 other.  To combat these fires, far more people are involved:  Medical, 32,496; Hazmat, 1,046; Law enforcement, 305; Public Service, 5,362.  There have been 27 deaths, 6,837 structures destroyed, 1,071 damages in Los Angeles.  

Americans do not always agree about the ways to confront these global changes.  Should America belong to the Paris Climate Agreement?  Is Global Warming real or simply a normal cycle, and if it is real, what is the appropriate response?  Is this a matter for politicians or scientists?  After floods, fires, hurricanes, tornadoes, and other natural disasters, is aid the responsibility nationally or the individual states.  If people keep building along shorelines, in crowed areas with histories of fires, in tornado zones, how many times should federal assistance be available?  Should insurance companies be able to refuse insurance in certain areas?  There are many questions to be answered.        

With more threats from hurricanes, floods, and fires, as well as increased melting on our north and south poles, is research on global warming a fact and no longer a political debate.  This blog began as a question of 'when should people in the line of danger from storms be warned so that they take proper precautions?'  As I reflected on my research for the blog, I seem to have raised a bigger question.     

Next Week:  Storms of a different kind, part 3. 

   

 

Storms, part 1

When I was a child, there had been a tornado, and the local television station covered the destruction heavily.  Interviews of those impacted by the tornado often described it as sounding like a train.  For weeks, I would lie awake on windy nights, listening for anything that sounded like a train.  Warnings then were not as sophisticated as they are today.  Recent storms have caused me to think about changes in storm warnings.   

Today we have significant opportunities to be warned, but in earlier times, that did not exist, although ancient humans did try to study the weather in search of patterns that might allow them to anticipate weather cycles.  Observation and the gradual creation of calendars helped, but what they needed were instruments, such as the thermometer and the barometer.  Even so, men were curious, Benjamin Franklin and his lightening experiment being an example. 

There were earlier efforts to warn others that a storm was headed their way, such as the telegraph.  The Smithsonian Institution launched a network of Weather Stations connected telegraphically to communicate weather events, which was the starting place for what became the National Weather Service. 

Ice Storm at the farm several years ago.

Today we may take for granted our access to weather notification as well as prediction in advance.  Lives can be saved by being warned in advance of weather threats.  Long term predictions can also help farmers.  We may think of tornadoes and hurricanes, but storms, heatwaves, and other weather related disasters can also be predicted and save lives.  Predictions of storms given 10 days or longer are accurate only about half of the time.  Seven-day forecasts are more accurate, at about 80% accuracy, and five-day forecasts are about 90% accurate for hurricanes.

 The problem is that if weather forecasters send warnings too far in advance the accuracy is lower, but if they wait too long to send the warning, there may not be time enough to take the precautions needed.  

Research has found that people are reluctant to change plans or their behavior unless they are fairly sure that it is going to impact them.  If they are told that they need to take cover, most people will, and if a tornado emergency or flash flood emergency is given, that often gets attention.  However, some people need to see the danger to take action, and there is the possibility that people are embarrassed by taking cover if no risk actually occurs.  

Studies have shown that different ethnicities respond differently to warnings, as well as how the warning is delivered, such as local TV versus national TV, or non-government websites.  

More research will follow next week!  

This series was written several months ago, so references to the tragic storm and fire recent events are not included.  However, they certainly are examples of the importance of warning, advance preparation, and frightening damages.

The Birth of Spin

It is difficult to envision the early decades of correspondence of American political communication, when communication relied on newspapers, letters that took days to deliver, and word of mouth.  Not only was delivery difficult and slow, but accuracy would also have been challenging, even for those acting in good faith.  As access and timeliness of correspondence improved, the challenge of bias or slant of information continued, whether only an effort to create a favorable impression or deliberate efforts to shade information were involved.  As the saying goes, "Everyone is entitled to his own opinion but not to his own facts."  Yet, the challenge of determining the accuracy of what we are told has existed for as long as humans learned how to communicate.

From long ago, the Owl has been a symbol of wisdom and truth, perhaps because of its ability to see in the dark. The need for truth and the challenge of discerning truth is as old as time, long before our nation existed.  Our nation's privilege of freedom of speech makes the importance even more essential that we honor that privilege.  However, it has never been entirely honored.  

Perhaps the 1980s were a professional turning point for the "art" of spin, with a gradual naming of the abuses: publicity, ballyhoo, propaganda, messaging, framing, strategic communication, bias.  The practice became so accepted that "spin rooms" to meet with reporters after news events to tweak the content became common.

Among the earlier efforts to combat misinformation were the Muckrakers, sometimes as outrageous in their attacks as those committing the falsehoods the Muckrakers exposed.  However, there were examples of investigations and disclosures by the Muckrakers that benefitted the public.  Perhaps the best example was Sinclair Lewis, and his book, The Jungle, that exposed the disgraceful and dangerous greed and abuse of the Chicago meatpackers. 

Presidents in particular struggled with communicating with the press.  President Wilson established the Committee on Public Information as a war time information bureau.  Franklin Roosevelt was particularly successful with his Fireside Chats.  On the other hand, radio also provided the abusive access for those who would spread prejudiced and false information, such as the broadcasts of Father Charles Coughlin and Huey Long.

The power of radio quickly diminished as television arrived.  One clever example was Ronald Reagan's dismissal of his age with a joke, telling his opponent, Mondale, that he would "not hold his youth and inexperience against him."  Not all presidents have been as skilled in using media, but they all recognize the importance of using it effectively. 

The media has tried to confront the spin, identifying outright falsehoods with fact checking, but it   proved less effective than might have been hoped.  Americans began to distrust the media.  Many sought news they found more agreeable.  The internet offered alternative sources, but checks on accuracy were often lacking.  Reporters, with rules that guided their responsibilities for accuracy, found themselves being replaced by commentators, who express opinions rather than unbiased facts.  

Gradually, the professional responsibility for those who bring us the news or host sources where information can be posted have become less vigilant, and recently Face Book has announced that they will no longer protect against misinformation by fact checking, leaving it up to individuals to recognize inaccuracies and intentional misrepresentation.  

The sad truth is that all of us prefer to hear what we want to hear, but for Americans to be entrusted with wise judgement, for themselves and their families, as well as for our freedom of speech, and informed votes, we must have access to the information we need.  As Roman poet Juvenal wrote, "Who will guard the guards themselves?  Who will watch the watchmen?" 

America's Inauguration Traditions

 

The Constitution is very limited in establishing traditional guidelines for the inauguration, saying only that there should be a taking of an oath. President Washington started the tradition of the Inaugural Address.  James and Dolly Madison started the tradition of a reception and an inaugural ball. Thomas Jefferson's second inauguration began the tradition of an open house at the executive mansion, but that tradition ended as a result of over eager crowds destructively overwhelming the White House. 

There are a variety of firsts resulting from advancement in technology. James Buchanan was the first to be photographed, William McKinley was the first in a movie, Calvin Coolidge the first on the radio, Harry Truman the first televised, and Bill Clinton the first to be live on the internet.

 Donald Trump's absence at the swearing in of Biden was the first to decline attendance since Andrew Johnson declined to attend Ulysses S. Grant's inauguration, but four other presidents had declined before him:  John Adams, John Quency Adams, Martin Van Buren, and Andrew Johnson. Two other absences from the full participation were Woodrow Willson because of health and Richard Nixon because of his resignation. It is not a mandate, although most outgoing presidents have chosen to attend.   

The Constitutional omission of defining guidelines for the inauguration has provided the opportunity for presidents to introduce personality into the ceremony.  Only 4 presidents have included poetry.  Kennedy was first, with Robert Frost.  Clinton invited poets to both inaugurations, Miller Williams first and Maya Angelou to the second inauguration.  Obama invited Richard Blanco and Elizabeth Alexander.  Biden invited Amanda Gorman.  These excerpts seemed particularly relevant today:  "Who were many people coming together cannot become one people falling apart."  Miller Williams.  "More Kindness, dear Lord of the renewing.  That is where it all had to start."  James Dickey.  "History, despite its wrenching pain cannot be unlived, but if faced with courage, need not be lived again."  Maya Angelou.  

Music has also had a place in inaugurations.  Marian Anderson sang for two presidents--Eisenhower and Kennedy.  Jimmy Carter is well known for his love of music of all kinds, and that was apparent at his inauguration when he included Willie Nelson's 'Crazy' sung by Linda Ronstadt, Irving Berlin's 'God Bless America' sung by Aretha Franklin, and 'Take Care of this House' by Leonard Bernstein.   Biden also selected a range of musicians for his inauguration, with Lady Gaga, Jennifer Lopez, and Garth Brooks.  Republicans have also rocked the inaugurations with George W. Bush bringing Livin' la Vida Loca, and Reagan bringing the Beach Boys.  

Much has changed since George Washington swore his oath in New York City, planned for March 4, 1789 but delayed until April 6, 1789 because harsh weather delayed the congressmen traveling to count the votes.  Then, as today, there may be some bumps in the road leading up to our inaugurations, but our system has held.  May the wisdom of the founding fathers and the character of those whom we have elected honor, protect and defend the constitution as they have sworn to do.  As Ronald Reagan said, may our nation be "the shining city upon a hill...teeming with people of all kinds, living in harmony and peace."  

        

In memory of President Jimmy Carter

 

When Jimmy Carter was elected President of the United States, I was an attorney at the Veterans Administration in Waco, Texas.  At that time, there was a man employed there who looked so much like Jimmy Carter that he should have taken a leave of absence for four years to impersonate the President.  He was from Texas, and although he did not have the same sweet southern accent that the President had, his Texas southern accent would have given him a head start over the other impersonators from the North who tried and failed to master the President's genuine smooth Georgia accent.  

My husband and I happened to be in New Orleans when Jimmy Carter was there campaigning for the presidency, and we joined the crowd around him, at least getting close enough to catch one of the peanuts he threw to the crowd.  I suppose we still have that peanut somewhere, unless we forgot it's value as having come from the hand of the future president. 

Notice the competing Republican posters in both photographs, brought to counter Carter's rally. 

Like others, I may have been disappointed by Carter's lack of grandeur in the office of the Presidency.  He really wasn't much for the pomp and circumstances of the office.  The truth is, we Americans seem to like a bit of grandeur surrounding our presidents, even if they are not kings.

He was not extremely popular during his presidency, often criticized as trying to do too much himself, rather than benefitting from participation of others with particular credentials on the many responsibilities of the presidency, which could have assisted the president in making his decisions.  

Not only was he an untraditional president, but his wife Rosalynn was also a unique first lady.  At the presidential inauguration balls, she wore a gown she had made, the same one she had worn to Balls in Atlanta when her husband was governor.  Her tastes were sometimes more homie than was typical, for example, for the Christmas tree in 1977, she chose ornaments made from pinecones, peanuts, and eggshells.  Her husband respected her skills and encouraged her participation in serious issues not typically addressed by first ladies.

Another thing unusual was his invitation to his wife to sit in on meetings with his staff.  Men were not particularly pleased to see Rosalynn taking notes during their meetings with the president.  She did not speak when she sat in on cabinet meetings, but her mere presence was objectional to many.  When asked why she took notes, she said, "I was there to be informed so that when I traveled across the country, which I did a great deal, and was questioned by the press and other individuals about all areas of government, I'd know what was going on."  I'm not sure that explanation would have pleased those in the President's cabinet, since it seems to suggest that she might have shared things they regarded as confidential.  Nevertheless, the president had great confidence in his wife's abilities and enjoyed being able to discuss things with her.

He was open with the people.  Perhaps they thought he was too much so, for example, in 1976 he sat for an interview for Playboy magazine, in which he spoke about the role of religion in his life.  The following quote was published.  "I try not to commit a deliberate sin.  I recognize that I'm human and I'm tempted...Christ said, 'I tell you that anyone who looks on a woman with lust has in his heart already committed adultery.'  I've looked on a lot of women with lust...and God forgives me for it."  It is hard to imagine any man more devoted to his wife or less likely to commit sin by lusting at the sight of another woman, but Jimmy took the Bible seriously.  Not every President can say the same.

Three things may have resulted in his failure to be reelected.  First, he was challenged in the primary by Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy, an unthinkable thing to challenge a sitting president of your own party, even though the challenge was defeated.  Second, not everyone agreed with his decision to negotiate with Panama's future control of the Panama Canel.  (On December 21, 2024, President-elect Donald Trump threatened retaking control from Panama.)  Third, perhaps worst of all, in November of 1979, Iranian students captured the American embassy and detained more than 50 Americans for 444 days.  The longer they were detained, the more Carter was criticized.  For further humiliation, the prisoners were released immediately after the swearing in of the new president, Ronald Reagan.  

Perhaps Jimmy Carter's greatest achievement in office was the successful Camp David agreement in 1978.  As a citizen, he was widely admired for his hands on work building houses and supporting safe elections in other countries.  I think it is fitting to close with his own words.  When asked what things that you cannot see are most important, he replied:  "I would say justice, truth, humility, service, compassion, love.  You can't see any of those, but they're the guiding lights of a life."  Rest in peace Jimmy Carter.  You certainly strived to live by the list of unseen but important responsibilities you described.

Photograph credits taken in New Orleans:  Larry Fenwick