Storms, part 1

When I was a child, there had been a tornado, and the local television station covered the destruction heavily.  Interviews of those impacted by the tornado often described it as sounding like a train.  For weeks, I would lie awake on windy nights, listening for anything that sounded like a train.  Warnings then were not as sophisticated as they are today.  Recent storms have caused me to think about changes in storm warnings.   

Today we have significant opportunities to be warned, but in earlier times, that did not exist, although ancient humans did try to study the weather in search of patterns that might allow them to anticipate weather cycles.  Observation and the gradual creation of calendars helped, but what they needed were instruments, such as the thermometer and the barometer.  Even so, men were curious, Benjamin Franklin and his lightening experiment being an example. 

There were earlier efforts to warn others that a storm was headed their way, such as the telegraph.  The Smithsonian Institution launched a network of Weather Stations connected telegraphically to communicate weather events, which was the starting place for what became the National Weather Service. 

Ice Storm at the farm several years ago.

Today we may take for granted our access to weather notification as well as prediction in advance.  Lives can be saved by being warned in advance of weather threats.  Long term predictions can also help farmers.  We may think of tornadoes and hurricanes, but storms, heatwaves, and other weather related disasters can also be predicted and save lives.  Predictions of storms given 10 days or longer are accurate only about half of the time.  Seven-day forecasts are more accurate, at about 80% accuracy, and five-day forecasts are about 90% accurate for hurricanes.

 The problem is that if weather forecasters send warnings too far in advance the accuracy is lower, but if they wait too long to send the warning, there may not be time enough to take the precautions needed.  

Research has found that people are reluctant to change plans or their behavior unless they are fairly sure that it is going to impact them.  If they are told that they need to take cover, most people will, and if a tornado emergency or flash flood emergency is given, that often gets attention.  However, some people need to see the danger to take action, and there is the possibility that people are embarrassed by taking cover if no risk actually occurs.  

Studies have shown that different ethnicities respond differently to warnings, as well as how the warning is delivered, such as local TV versus national TV, or non-government websites.  

More research will follow next week!  

This series was written several months ago, so references to the tragic storm and fire recent events are not included.  However, they certainly are examples of the importance of warning, advance preparation, and frightening damages.