The Importance of Weather

Every day, Isaac B. Werner recorded the weather in his journal--the temperature, the rainfall, the condition of his crops.  As a farmer, he followed the markets, relying on trips to town or reports from neighbors, having no radio, television, or internet to check for the latest reports.  Neither did he have a local weather man or woman to advise him of projected changes in the weather nor NOAA to warn him of approaching severe weather.

What he did have, however, were folk sayings and a keen sense of observation with which to make his own weather predictions.  "Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning."  He learned the signs of his region and was constantly alert.  After seeing his first tornado, like a sock hanging down from the clouds, he became more watchful of cloud formations like the ones from which the sock-shape had developed, better understanding what had preceded the tornado that touched down and darkened with the dirt it carried upward as he watched. He consulted his journal entries to observe weather patterns from year to year, and bought the pamphlets containing not only weather predictions but also solar and lunar events.  He also corresponded with Professor Shelton at Kansas State College, Director of the first Experimental Station, and he subscribed to farming journals.

Today we have so many sources of information, and most important is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, founded October 3, 1970 by President Richard Nixon within the Department of Commerce.  In the words of President Nixon, by bringing earlier scientific agencies within the government together, it would provide "better protection of life and property from natural hazards  ...for a better understanding of the total environment...[and] for exploration and development leading to the intelligent use of our marine resources."  The need for such information and intelligent use of resources was recognized early, and agencies to achieve those goals were among some of the oldest in our federal government, for example:  United States Coast and Geodetic Survey, 1807; Weather Bureau of the United States, 1870; Bureau of Commercial Fisheries (research fleet) 1871; Coast and Geodetic Survey Corps, 1917.   

The breadth of essential responsibilities under the umbrella of NOAA is remarkable and, I suspect, largely under appreciated by most of us.  At a cost of about $3 per person, the following services exist:  Weather Service; Ocean Service; Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service; Marine Fisheries Service; Oceanic and Atmospheric Research; Marine and Aviation Operations; Geodetic Survey; Integrated Drought Information System; NOAA Commissioned Corps; and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Walt Whitman

Walt Whitman (1819-1892), who was living throughout Isaac Werner's entire life, wrote in his book Specimen Days under the heading 'Nature And Democracy--Mortality', "American Democracy, in its myriad personalities, in factories, work-shops, stores, offices--through the dense streets and houses of cities, and all their manifold sophisticated life--must either be fibred, vitalized, by regular contact with out-door light and air and growths, farm-scenes, animals, fields, trees, birds, sun-warmth and free skies, or it will morbidly dwindle and pale.  We cannot have grand races of mechanics, work people, and commonalty, (the only specific purpose of America,) on any less terms."  

During a very dry season, when farmers desperately needed rain, I was in the local Wal-Mart when a woman came running into the store, proclaiming loudly in disgust to everyone close enough to hear, "I just got my hair done and this rain is spoiling it."  The economy of our community is based almost entirely on agriculture and ranching, and whether this woman lived in town or not, her family's livelihood was probably dependent on farms and ranches surrounding the town.  Yet, she seemed unaware of the need for the rain she found so unwanted because it spoiled her freshly styled hair.

Whitman was right.  Isaac Werner and those early settlers knew the importance of those things under the umbrella of NOAA today, but those who have lived their lives in cities may forget how essential all of that is.  Perhaps even some of us who live in the country may fail to reflect on the importance of all the interconnected responsibilities "for a better understanding of the total environment" as described by President Nixon.  The flooding and wildfires may be making more Americans aware of that.

Remember, you can click on the images to enlarge them.

Homage to a Great Scientist

Stephen Hawking, 1980s

On March 14, 2018, the world lost Stephen Hawking, who died at the age of 76 after having been diagnosed with Lou Gehrig's Disease at the age of 21.  With what had seemed a death sentence, he refused to concede to disabilities that seemed insurmountable, to become a legendary physicist.  Not only did his twisted body confine him to a wheelchair but also necessitated a speech synthesizer to enable him to speak.  Yet, nothing seemed capable of destroying his ability to explore the universe.  His ideas will continue to influence the study of space for decades to come.

His studies led him to issue warnings to those of us living in his time about consequences for the future if we continue as we are doing.  He projected the possibility that at the current population growth of our planet, humans may limit their own time on earth through the heat generated by over-population.  In effect, he seemed to forecast a similar environmental crisis for humans as dinosaurs confronted in the Ice Age, but of a reverse temperature threat.  He also warned that Artificial Intelligence, even with its potential to do positive things, also risks facilitating the creation of powerful weapons of terror.  "Success in creating effective Al could be the biggest event in the history of our civilization, or the worst," Hawking warned.

Hawking is certainly to be admired for his willingness to create a productive life when many of us would have given up as the disability worsened.  When asked by an interviewer how he might change the universe, if that were possible, he replied:  "If I had designed it differently, it wouldn't have produced me.  ...I'm prepared to make do with the universe we have, and try to find out what it is like."  His dry sense of humor, as well as his daily courage, are to be admired.

Hawking receives Presidential Medal of Freedom

One of his college professors said of him, "It was only necessary for him to know that something could be done, and he could do it without looking to see how other people did it."  That confidence sometimes got him into trouble academically, but it also gave him the confidence to pursue his own ideas and not be bound by ideas of others.

He used his sense of humor to dispute those who suggest time travel into the past is possible by hosting a party.  However, the invitation gave a date already past, reducing his guest list to those time-travelers who had the ability to travel backward in order to attend.  No guests arrived.

Loss of speech was an early result of his disease, but he used a computer program called the Equalizer, developed by Walter Woltosz.  First operated with his hand, when that was no longer possible he used the muscles of his cheek.  Eventually he used a different program called SwiftKey, which utilized input from his papers and other writings to allow discussing ideas without letter by letter entries.

Mobility was also a gradually increasing problem, as was breathing, yet he managed to continue a productive life until his death on March 17, 2018, having been a guest on Neil deGrasse Tyson's show StarTalk that same month.  Such courage should inspire all of us as we deal with far smaller issues in our lives.

He raised questions for all of us, admitting that he did not know the answers but wanted "to get people to think about it, and to be aware of the dangers we now face."  Among his concerns were the dangers to Earth from such things as nuclear war, global warming, and genetically engineered viruses, and even the possibility of aliens.  Resting the likely odds of there being aliens on the vastness of the universe, he suggested that if there were aliens who visited our planet, we should reflect on what happened to Native Americans when Columbus landed in America, "...which didn't turn out well for the Native Americans."  In other words, if aliens did reach Earth, their technology might exceed ours, and contact with them might be unwise.

Hawking in Zero-G flight, (photo credit Jim Campbell)

However, that did not make Hawking reluctant for us to travel in space ourselves, and he personally wanted to do so.  Richard Branson offered him a free flight on Virgin Galactic, and Hawking actually flew on a jet operated by Zero-G Corp. and experienced weightlessness to see if he could withstand the g-forces of space flight. He could.  Unfortunately, the completion of Virgin Galactic did not progress as quickly as projected, and Hawking did not get to fly in space. However, I can only imagine the joy and wonder of his Zero-G flight, experiencing the freedom of weightlessness in contrast to his physical restrictions of Earth's gravity.

In the last decades of his life, Hawking began to speak out on behalf of protecting our own planet for our children.  In his own country, he spoke out against England's withdrawal from the European Union, believing science benefits from a sharing of ideas among countries, with international collaboration by scientists conducting modern research beyond national boundaries.

He also spoke out strongly about global warming, saying:  "Climate change is one of the great dangers we face, and it's one we can prevent if we act now."  His emphasis was on nations acting together, warning that if we withdraw from joint efforts, we "...will cause avoidable environmental damage to our beautiful planet, endangering the natural world for us and our children."  He used a planet in our own solar system as an example of what Earth might become, "...like Venus, with a temperature of two hundred and fifty degrees, and raining sulphuric acid."

So, we have lost Stephen Hawking, but the ideas and warnings he gave us remain, and his example of a productive life in the face of such challenges is not the least among all of the important things he left behind!

Remember, images can be enlarged by clicking on them.

Reading tributes to Stephen Hawking led me to consider the great scientific minds that made their contributions during the lifetime of Isaac Werner.  Without computers, copy machines, and the refined instruments of scientists of the century after Isaac's death, or of the present day.  Next week's blog will pay homage to some of the scientists making great discoveries while Isaac Werner lived.

Drought on the Prairie

"July was proving to be unusually hot, and rain was sorely needed.  The leaves on Isaac's potato plants were drying, even the ones in his garden patch that he watered daily.  The corn was suffering too,  drying before  ears had formed or silk was out, and leaves turning white.  The ground was too dry and hard most places to stir the wheat stubble, such droughty conditions being exactly what Professor Hicks had predicted.  According to the current almanac, the drought was to set in after June and continue into the 1891 and 1892 seasons.  Isaac could only hope that this time Professor Hicks was wrong."

The above quote is from Chapter 8, 1890, of my manuscript.  Did you think I might be quoting from this week's newspaper?  The passage certainly sounds familiar to many farmers in Isaac's old Kansas community.

In Isaac's time, he turned to almanacs for long range weather predictions.  The almanac pictured at right was published in 1892 by Dr. J. A. McLean to promote his patent medicines, but the "Storm Calendar and Weather Forecasts" were prepared by Rev. Irl R. Hicks, the "Storm Prophet," whose weather predictions Isaac came to respect.

Today's farmers have more sophisticated forecasting methods available to them.  The United States Seasonal Drought Outlook map shown below was issued by the National Weather Service.

 According to the news report accompanying the map, the current drought is the most widespread since 1956, with 56% of pastures and rangelands in poor to very poor conditions and stream flows at or near record low values across much of the Midwest and parts of the Central Plains, West, Southeast, and even parts of New England.  Sixty-four percent of the contiguous U.S. is in some degree of drought, with another 17% abnormally dry.

Working on my manuscript this week, tweaking and deleting to tighten the text in preparation for submitting to publishers, I read the paragraph quoted above.  Like so many issues from the 1880s and 1890s that relate to what we face today, today's farmers can obviously identify with the challenges faced by Isaac during the drought a century and a quarter ago.  Careful weather records like those kept in Isaac's journal are part of our present consideration of whether such climatic events are only cyclical weather patterns or whether today's weather is becoming more extreme and erratic.  Farming since Isaac's time has obviously become more sophisticated, but like Isaac, today's farmers remain subject to the challenges of unfavorable weather.